The number you want isn't a KH floor, it's a consumption rate, which is why you're getting three different answers in here and all of them are right.
Nitrification eats alkalinity as it runs, on the order of 7.1
mg/L as CaCO3 for every 1 mg/L of
ammonia-nitrogen oxidised. One dKH is about 17.9 mg/L, so your 2.5 dKH is roughly 45 mg/L of buffer, which is somewhere near 6 ppm of ammonia processed before it is gone. Dose 2 ppm a day into a fishless cycle and that is three days to zero. Then pH falls, and nitrification slows under about 6.5 and roughly stops near 6.0. That is your stalled tank.
It also explains the tank that didn't come round after two 40% changes. Two of those only turn over about 64% of the water, so you diluted into a tank that is still burning buffer faster than you are putting it back.
And it reconciles tinylostwine with you, because you are both describing real tanks. An established tank at 0 KH is fine since its ammonia load is small and continuous, so the daily alkalinity draw is tiny. A cycling tank takes one big slug every day. Same water, different demand.
So rather than chase a KH number: add the baking soda to the tank itself instead of only to the
change water, so you can top up mid-cycle; test KH as often as you test pH, since KH is the one that moves first; and drop the ammonia dose to 1-2 ppm. It cycles just as well and costs you a fraction of the buffer per day.