Hey MisterSnuffles. I saw you like my previous post on this subject, so I think you know on where I stand and what the capabilities of the
heaters are, it really depends on how much heat you need the heater to do and the volume of water involved. depends on how much you expect the heater to do if you just need a couple degrees or if you need a full 6 degrees rise in temp, you'd need a bigger heater or it's going to run all the time, and run up a bill (aquarium heaters are not cheap to run if they run most of the day). bigger is usually better and it comes on, heats up and shuts off plus you can get a higher range using an oversized heater on a smaller aquarium... within reason. Like aquarium filters and airpumps run at from about 3 watts to 50 watts generally speaking and they run 24/7, a small heater being asked to do more than it's capable of would run the same kind of cost trying to heat the tank and never quite getting there.
in essence it's one part that doesn't have to run all the time, it's better to spend more out of pocket for the larger size the one time, than to pay the extra on the electricity bill all year.
Also it's less likely to fail and more likely to last longer if it's not being overworked.