A lot depends on how you are returning the water to the pond. If you are going to have a waterfall or stream type feature, you want the higher volume to get the water to the top of your waterfall/stream. If you are just going to be doing a small return at water level with no fanfare, then you could get by with a smaller filter/pump. Generally, the bigger the better. Some pumps you can get a flow adjustment knob on so you can adjust the flow rate.